A developmental trajectory describes the course of a behavior over age or time. This lecture will provide an overview of a group-based method for analyzing developmental trajectories. The method provides the capability to (1) identify rather than assume distinctive groups of trajectories, (2) estimate the proportion of the population following each such trajectory group, (3) relate group membership probability to individual characteristics and circumstances, (4) relate trajectories to subsequent outcomes, and (5) analyze the interconnection of trajectories of different behaviors. The lecture will be followed by a workshop that demonstrates the use of a Stata plugin for estimating group-based trajectory models. For the workshop please bring your laptop w/Stata with the proc traj plugin installed.
Dr. Nagin is Teresa and H. John Heinz III University Professor of Public Policy and Statistics in the Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University. He is an elected Fellow of the American Society of Criminology and of the American Society for the Advancement of Science and is the 2006 recipient of the American Society of Criminology’s Edwin H Sutherland Award. His research focuses on the evolution of criminal and antisocial behaviors over the life course, the deterrent effect of criminal and non-criminal penalties on illegal behaviors, and the development of statistical methods for analyzing longitudinal data.